Presidential Bid-ness

If you believe in the wisdom of crowds, then prediction markets should give us a pretty good idea of who is going to win in the upcoming primary elections in Iowa and New Hampshire. Check out the following from Intrade, where people are betting real money on these races. As of today, Obama's got an overwhelming lead over Clinton (60% to 30%) in Iowa, while Clinton has inched back ahead of Obama in New Hampshire after losing her commanding lead (49% to 45%). For the Republicans, Iowa is Huckabee over Romney (64% to 25%), and New Hampshire Romney over McCain (55% to 15%).